Ensuring southern Africa is not roasted in Copenhagen

Summit this week's Copenhagen climate change may not have much beyond a general framework agreement, leaving many details to be worked on the accumulation of the Kyoto Protocol expires in 2012.

One reason for this is that trade and competitiveness issues are moving to center stage, raising problematic issues that can not be rigged.

The central concern is the "carbon leakage". Essentially, the developed countries worry that they implement carbon reduction measures with teeth, penalizing their companies, what companies relocate production to developing countries that have not made substantial reduction obligations.

Furthermore, developing countries generally have less punitive environmental laws, and so it is possible to transfer older, more polluting technologies to them. The net result could be loss of jobs in developed countries, while carbon emissions are not reduced or increased potential, and the planet "cooks" anyway.

These concerns lead logically to the potential resources of trade policy. Three such resources are under discussion in various forums.

First U.S. Senate in the "border carbon adjustments" are proposing. These impose a tax on imports in the "trade exposed industries, including metals processing, countries that have not adopted a substantial reduction target.

If the U.S. Congress is to adopt a package of serious internal climate change is almost certain to include border carbon adjustments in some form. The Border carbon adjustment have also been advanced by French presidents and German leaders, and informally in discussion within the European Union (EU). Needless to say, strongly opposed by China, India and other large developing countries that are prone to be attacked.

Second, "the methods of production process" have been part of the debate on linkages between trade and environment. Methods of production process have a more comprehensive discussion of carbon mitigation, but are very relevant.

They have found their way in the various regimes of rules, for example, special rules laid down by retailers country, mostly developed, and voluntary association agreements the EU in forestry. They have also found expression in the "miles" question of fact, the transport system is a major carbon emitter and therefore the countries or regions that rely heavily for their trade are exposed to some risk. Similarly, setting out the countries that depend heavily on energy production from fossil fuels.

Third, the Doha round of WTO negotiations, Member States are still haggling over the liberalization of environmental goods and services. The main disagreement is the extent to which the major emerging economies to liberalize imports of goods and services, some suspect it may be better to protect certain niches within this sector to build its own industrial capacity. This is connected to a broader debate on climate change negotiations on the terms on which developing countries can have access to advanced technologies for clean energy and how this access will be financed.

Unfortunately, the talks on climate change mainly refers to a process of burden sharing, or tiling the pain of mitigating carbon emissions. Therefore, what may make sense from a standpoint of environmental policy can make a bad trade policy, and if this is the case could fuel the growing problem of protectionism.

Thus, emerging market countries, especially those who face a challenge of the most important mitigation, could find themselves caught between the proverbial rock and a hard - if they take the knife to carbon emissions, economic growth and social peace may be compromised, if they hold the knife in its sheath, exports and trade in general can be compromised.

These dynamics are particularly applicable to SA and through it to southern Africa. South Africa's economy is based on resource production and to some measure of benefit in turn depends on cheap energy. This means that "trade exposed industries" are substantially represented in our export basket, which makes us a potential target of border carbon adjustments.

In addition, SA is a major carbon emitter, due to our allocation of coal. Given our energy needs and coal power plant as a result of creating mitigation programs will get worse before they improve.

Unfortunately, investment in renewable energy is constrained by the structure of the domestic market, specifically the fact that Eskom is simultaneously the monopoly supplier and buyer power, while the expected loss of balance of his building program starts significantly to the extent that it is willing to subsidize renewable energy producers through new-style food-in-tariff.

These two mutually reinforcing dynamics means that adjustments to the border of carbon and production process methods can be attractive to some of our trading partners from developed countries.

This could be minimized if you have adopted a relatively liberal stance with respect to environmental goods and services negotiations, particularly one in favor of importing appropriate technology at the time that the best price possible elimination of market distortions in the raceway out. This approach would ensure that we are exposed to latest technologies possible, and appropriately targeted with government support for research and development in this sector, some market niches could be established to operate in Africa and other market securities emerging.

For South Africa the sector of greatest concern is agriculture, where most of the rural poor earn their living. "Climate Protection" can take the new product standards or rigorous and labeling for export value, such as fruits and vegetables.

Because the region and relies heavily on rainfed agriculture, which in turn is potentially exposed to unprecedented changes in climate, if this is not handled with sensitivity towards achieving the Millennium Development Goals can be even more frustrated.

Mitigation of carbon emissions in the transport sector is not only good for climate protection, but also protects the public from air pollution and noise. But such measures are an additional source of concern for the region. To the extent that its application involves affect all countries, but the effects may be more acute in the developing world.

The measures of aviation, for example, could penalize the tourism sector, which is a source of revenue for many countries in southern Africa. In addition, road transport is essential for cross-border trade in the region, so any measure in this sector should be closely monitored.

In general, we all expect a successful outcome of the Copenhagen negotiations and negotiations on climate in general, the consequences for the trading system to trade and South Africa, in particular, require careful consideration. We must be especially vigilant to ensure that policies designed to promote global public good is not unfairly penalized for our development.

Draper n is the commercial project manager, South African Institute of International Affairs. Mbirimi is an independent consultant.

Trade and competitiveness issues are moving to center stage, raising problematic issues that can not be amañadasCumbre this week's Copenhagen climate change may not have much beyond a general framework agreement, leaving many details to be worked on the accumulation of the Kyoto Protocol expires in 2012.

One reason for this is that trade and competitiveness issues are moving to center stage, raising problematic issues that can not be rigged.

The central concern is the "carbon leakage". Essentially, the developed countries worry that they implement carbon reduction measures with teeth, penalizing their companies, what companies relocate production to developing countries that have not made substantial reduction obligations.

Furthermore, developing countries generally have less punitive environmental laws, and so it is possible to transfer older, more polluting technologies to them. The net result could be loss of jobs in developed countries, while carbon emissions are not reduced or increased potential, and the planet "cooks" anyway.

These concerns lead logically to the potential resources of trade policy. Three such resources are under discussion in various forums.

First U.S. Senate in the "border carbon adjustments" are proposing. These impose a tax on imports in the "trade exposed industries, including metals processing, countries that have not adopted a substantial reduction target.

If the U.S. Congress is to adopt a package of serious internal climate change is almost certain to include border carbon adjustments in some form. The Border carbon adjustment have also been advanced by French presidents and German leaders, and informally in discussion within the European Union (EU). Needless to say, strongly opposed by China, India and other large developing countries that are prone to be attacked.

Second, "the methods of production process" have been part of the debate on linkages between trade and environment. Methods of production process have a more comprehensive discussion of carbon mitigation, but are very relevant.

They have found their way in the various regimes of rules, for example, special rules laid down by retailers country, mostly developed, and voluntary association agreements the EU in forestry. They have also found expression in the "miles" question of fact, the transport system is a major carbon emitter and therefore the countries or regions that rely heavily for their trade are exposed to some risk. Similarly, setting out the countries that depend heavily on energy production from fossil fuels.

Third, the Doha round of WTO negotiations, Member States are still haggling over the liberalization of environmental goods and services. The main disagreement is the extent to which the major emerging economies to liberalize imports of goods and services, some suspect it may be better to protect certain niches within this sector to build its own industrial capacity. This is connected to a broader debate on climate change negotiations on the terms on which developing countries can have access to advanced technologies for clean energy and how this access will be financed.

Unfortunately, the talks on climate change mainly refers to a process of burden sharing, or tiling the pain of mitigating carbon emissions. Therefore, what may make sense from a standpoint of environmental policy can make a bad trade policy, and if this is the case could fuel the growing problem of protectionism.

Thus, emerging market countries, especially those who face a challenge of the most important mitigation, could find themselves caught between the proverbial rock and a hard - if they take the knife to carbon emissions, economic growth and social peace may be compromised, if they hold the knife in its sheath, exports and trade in general can be compromised.

These dynamics are particularly applicable to SA and through it to southern Africa. South Africa's economy is based on resource production and to some measure of benefit in turn depends on cheap energy. This means that "trade exposed industries" are substantially represented in our export basket, which makes us a potential target of border carbon adjustments.

In addition, SA is a major carbon emitter, due to our allocation of coal. Given our energy needs and coal power plant as a result of creating mitigation programs will get worse before they improve.

Unfortunately, investment in renewable energy is constrained by the structure of the domestic market, specifically the fact that Eskom is simultaneously the monopoly supplier and buyer power, while the expected loss of balance of his building program starts significantly to the extent that it is willing to subsidize renewable energy producers through new-style food-in-tariff.

These two mutually reinforcing dynamics means that adjustments to the border of carbon and production process methods can be attractive to some of our trading partners from developed countries.

This could be minimized if you have adopted a relatively liberal stance with respect to environmental goods and services negotiations, particularly one in favor of importing appropriate technology at the time that the best price possible elimination of market distortions in the raceway out. This approach would ensure that we are exposed to latest technologies possible, and appropriately targeted with government support for research and development in this sector, some market niches could be established to operate in Africa and other market securities emerging.

For South Africa the sector of greatest concern is agriculture, where most of the rural poor earn their living. "Climate Protection" can take the new product standards or rigorous and labeling for export value, such as fruits and vegetables.

Because the region and relies heavily on rainfed agriculture, which in turn is potentially exposed to unprecedented changes in climate, if this is not handled with sensitivity towards achieving the Millennium Development Goals can be even more frustrated.

Mitigation of carbon emissions in the transport sector is not only good for climate protection, but also protects the public from air pollution and noise. But such measures are an additional source of concern for the region. To the extent that its application involves affect all countries, but the effects may be more acute in the developing world.

The measures of aviation, for example, could penalize the tourism sector, which is a source of revenue for many countries in southern Africa. In addition, road transport is essential for cross-border trade in the region, so any measure in this sector should be closely monitored.

In general, we all expect a successful outcome of the Copenhagen negotiations and negotiations on climate in general, the consequences for the trading system to trade and South Africa, in particular, require careful consideration. We must be especially vigilant to ensure that policies designed to promote global public good is not unfairly penalized for our development.

Draper n is the commercial project manager, South African Institute of International Affairs. Mbirimi is an independent consultant.

Trade and competitiveness issues are moving to center stage, raising problematic issues that can not be rigged